Blind to the Future: Managerial Hubris, Foresight and Contextual Impact

Speaker: Prof. Bilian Ni (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)


Topic:	Blind to the Future: Managerial Hubris, Foresight and Contextual Impact
Time&Date:	12:00pm-13:30pm, 2018/5/25
Venue:	Room A619, Teaching A
Speaker	Prof. Bilian Ni (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Abstract:	Extending the current literature on the role of managerial cognition in strategic decision-making, we propose a comprehensive theoretical framework illustrating the relationship between managerial hubris and foresight. We argue that managerial hubris leads to a reduced level of foresight due to biases in perceiving and processing information. We further argue that the hubristic effect on managerial foresight is influenced by internal R&D capability and external market conditions. We contend that R&D capability strongly moderates the impact of hubris on foresight but the human and physical capital resources behind those R&D capabilities exert different impacts and these interactive effects are even amplified in regions with a higher level of marketization. With a unique two-wave survey of about 500 firms in different provinces of China, we find general support for our propositions. This study has significant implications for understanding managerial decision-making and forward-looking perspectives in strategic management.